On 4 Apr. 2017, IS spokesman Abu Hassan al-Muhajir, broadcasted via IS media al-Furqan (The Criterion) an audio statement entitled, “So Be Patient. Indeed, the Promise of Allah Is Truth”.
In this audio message, he calls IS followers in the West and in other IS’ Wilayats (province) outside of Iraq and Syria to carry out attacks in the West in order to relieve pressure on the group in Iraq and Syria. He specifically targeted, the EU, US and Russia.
On 27 Nov. 2016, Al Furqan already realised a video demonstrating how IS members in the West could carry out simple but effective attacks using readily available items like kitchen knives.
The day after that video came out, a Muslim Somali refugee carried out a vehicular assault at Ohio State University and assailed people with a knife.
IS specifically mentioned Russia because Vladimir Poutine is deeply engaged alongside Bashar al-Assad to fight against IS’ fighters in Syria. IS has a Wilayat in Russia called Kavkaz (Caucasus). This organisation includes many Chechen veterans who have been fighting against the Russian regime for decades. The last IS attack in Russia was on 24 Mar. 2017 in Chechnya.
One of the more active Wilayats outside of Iraq and Syria is Wilayat Khorosan (“where comes the Sun from” in Persian) which operates in Afghanistan and Pakistan. On 8 Mar. 2017, the group carried out an attack on a hospital in Kabul killing 49 people.
The probability of further IS inspired or planned attacks in the West or in other Wilayats is assessed as highly likely.